FOREX AMBUSH 2.0

Friday, November 13, 2009

Dow up 73

At Friday's close, the Dow Jones industrials ($INDU) jumped 73 points, or 0.7%, to 10,270. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) added 6 points, or 0.6%, to 1,093, and the Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPX) rose 19 points, or 0.9%, to 2,168.

The Nasdaq-100 Index ($NDX.X), which tracks the largest Nasdaq stocks, were up 15 points, or 0.9%, to 1,789.

Next week brings another slew of important retail earnings, including reports from Target (TGT) and home improvement retailers Lowe's(LOW) and Home Depot (HD). General Motors (MTLQQ) reports on Monday.

The dollar's decline against the euro, British pound, Japanese yen and the Canadian dollar boosted commodity stocks and the stocks of companies that do large amounts of business outside the United States.

Just about every time the dollar has fallen in recent months, stocks have risen. A dollar rally has been a downer for equities.

The major indexes closed higher for the second week in a row. The Dow was up 2.5%, with the S&P 500 up 2.2% and the Nasdaq up 2.6%.


Moreover, November, one of the top three months of the year for stocks, has been living up to its billing. The Dow is up 5.7% this month, with the S&P 500 up 5.5% and the Nasdaq up 6%.

The dollar's decline did not help all commodities. While gold settled up $10.10 to $1,116.70 an ounce Friday (up 1.9% for the week), crude oil fell 59 cents to $76.35 a barrel in New York.

Crude was down 1.4% this week because domestic supplies appear to be greater than current demand.


Friday's rally came despite an unexpected decline in the Reuters/University of Michigan index on consumer confidence.


The index fell to 66.0 from 70.6 in October; economists had been looking for 71.8. The index has fallen two months in a row after hitting 73.5 in September.

Disney was the Dow leader, up 4.8% to $30.44 after reporting better--than-expected fiscal-fourth-quarter earnings late Thursday. It was Disney's first close above $30 since Oct. 1, 2008.

The results were powered by strong results for its cable TV businesses, particularly the ESPN sports network and its Disney Family channels, as well as strong syndication sales of popular shows like "Desperate Housewives," "According to Jim" and "Grey's Anatomy."

Disney was followed by McDonald's (MCD), up 2.3% to $63.58.

Twenty-two of the 30 Dow stocks were higher, along with about 380 S&P 500 stocks and 77 Nasdaq-100 stocks.

J.C. Penney, Abercrombie shares soar

J.C. Penney and Abercrombie & Fitch were two of the biggest stars among stocks Friday.

J.C. Penney shares were up 6.2% to $31.21, second among S&P 500 stocks, behind Abercrombie, which was up 10.7% to $40.68.

J.C. Penney said Friday that fiscal-third-quarter profit plunged 78% to $27 million, or 11 cents a share, from $124 million, or 56 cents, last year. Excluding one-time costs, J.C. Penney earned 30 cents per share, well above the consensus estimate of 12 cents.

Sales declined 3.2% to $4.18 billion.

But the department-store company boosted its full-year outlook to between 93 cents and $1.08 per share, up from previous guidance of up to 90 cents a share.

Fourth-quarter profit should be 70 to 85 cents a share. Analysts are looking for 82 cents for the quarter and $1.05 for the year.

Abercrombie & Fitch earned 30 cents a share in the third quarter, 10 cents better than the consensus estimate. CEO Michael Jeffries said the company is expanding overseas to places like Milan, Italy, and Tokyo to help offset weakness in the U.S.

Friday, October 16, 2009

Dow falls 67 as crude oil tops $78



The Dow hit 10,019 at about 3:35 p.m. ET before fallling back at the close.

The Dow Jones industrials ($INDU) dropped under 10,000 early in the day but flirted with the 10,000 level several times in the afternoon. But last-minute selling pushed the index down 67 points to 9,996. The Dow had closed above 10,000 for the first time in a year on Wednesday and held that level on Thursday.


Stocks fell back Friday as investors ignored a very strong earnings report from Google (GOOG).

Instead, profit-taking seemed to dominate the thinking of many investors and traders.


The excuse they used to take profits were earnings disappointments from General Electric (GE), Bank of America (BAC) and IBM (IBM).

Crude oil jumped to $78.53, its highest close of the year and up 9.4% on the week.

IBM, GE and Bank of America were the largest drags among the 30 Dow stocks. Because of the way the Dow is calculated, IBM's 5% loss to $121.64 contributed about 48 points of the index's loss by itself.

GE was off 4.2% to $16.08, and Bank of America was down 4.6% to $17.26.

Profit at GE Capital, the company's financial arm, plunged 87% to $263 million. And that was helped by a tax benefit.

IBM said third-quarter profit rose 14% to $3.2 billion, or $2.40 per share. Revenue fell to $23.6 billion from $25.3 billion in the same period last year. Analysts were expecting $2.38 per share on $23.86 billion in sales.

All was not bad in the markets. Google's strong results, reported late Thursday, helped the stock gain 3.8% to $549.85. It was the best performer among stocks in the Nasdaq-100 Index ($NDX.X). The index was down 14 points to 1,739.

But Apple, which reports fiscal-fourth-quarter earnings after Monday's close, was down 1.3% to $188.05.The major averages finished higher for the second week in a row. The Dow added 1.3%, with the S&P 500 up 1.5% and the Nasdaq rising 0.8%.

Energy was the strongest sector of the market, up 5% on the week, followed by industrials and consumer discretionary stocks. The weak links were financial stocks and telecoms.

Friday, October 2, 2009

Jobs report pushes stocks lower

Stocks suffered their first two-week loss since July after an ugly report on jobs showed the U.S. national unemployment hitting 9.8%.
Dow Jones industrials ($INDU) closed down 22 points to 9,488. The Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPX) was off 9 points to 2,048, and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) was down 5 points at 1,025.

Not only did the unemployment rate hit 9.8%, the highest since June 1983, but nonfarm payrolls fell by 263,000, more than analysts had expected.

While the market recovered from early lows on Friday, it faded in the last hour of trading. What strength there was came from consumer staple stocks, financial stocks and tech stocks.

Financials and techs were the market's leaders.

Overall, industrial stocks lagged the market. General Electric (GE) was the Dow's biggest laggard, down 3.8% to $15.36.

Merck (MRK) and Coca-Cola (KO) were the top performers among the 30 Dow stocks, followed by JPMorgan Chase (JPM), which was up 1.3% to $41.86.

Apple was up 2.2% to $184.90 after an upgrade from UBS analyst Maynard Ulm, who raised his price target to $265 on the strength of the company's iPhone business.

Crude oil, meanwhile, closed down 87 cents a barrel to $69.96 as the dollar bounced higher from a morning low.
Gold was up slightly to $1,003.20 an ounce. The metal is up 1.2% for the week.

The market's performance this week -- the major averages fell for four straight days -- may keep investors on edge next week.

Friday, September 25, 2009

Dow off 42 on weak economic news

The Dow Jones industrials ($INDU) closed down 42 points to 9,665. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) was off 6 points to 1,044, and the Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPX) was down 17 points to 2,091.
Stocks ended the week with their worst losses since early July.

But the good news in the declines was this: They could have been worse.

The declines were largely the product of mediocre economic news and a bad earnings report from Research In Motion (RIMM) that triggered a 17% loss in its stock price.

At the same time, President Barack Obama's announcement Friday that Iran has been operating a second secret nuclear facility weighed on markets.

Meanwhile, Research In Motion shares had slumped to $68.91 at the close after the company reported fiscal-second-quarter earnings of $1.03 per share, 3 cents better than the consensus of $1.

Revenue rose 36.8% year-over-year to $3.53 billion but fell short of the $3.62 billion consensus.

The company added 3.8 million net subscribers in the quarter, at the low end of its guidance of 3.8 million to 4.1 million.

The stock was downgraded by Deutsche Bank, Raymond James and Goldman Sachs.

The report pushed shares of Apple (AAPL) down 0.8% to $182.37. But Palm (PALM) shares were 1.3% higher to $16.37, despite reports that Verizon Communications (VZ) won't be promoting its Pre phone.

Alcoa (AA) was the laggard among the 30 Dow stocks, down 3.2% to $13.08.

McDonald's (MCD), up 1.5% to $56.95, and Coca-Cola (KO), up 1.2% to $52.97, were the Dow leaders. McDonald's raised its dividend 10% to 55 cents a share.

Crude oil jumped above $67 a barrel on the Iranian news but fell back as the day wore on. Crude closed at $66.02, up 13 cents, but finished the week down 8.4%.

Stocks will face some big challenges next week with some very important economic reports. The biggest will be on Oct. 2, the report on unemployment and nonfarm payrolls. In addition, automakers will report on September sales on Thursday.

The following week will mark the beginning of third-quarter earnings season.
A big question that many investors will be asking is whether the Dow can jump above 10,000 for the first time since October 2008. The Dow hit 9,918 on Wednesday right after the Federal Reserve decided to leave interest rates alone, then slumped.

Other things to watch next week will be whether the Dow drops below 9,600, which emerged as a strong support level a week ago, and then 9,200, its low in August.

Friday, September 18, 2009

Stocks see 8th weekly gain

A finish above 10,000 could send the entire stock market higher, experts say.The Dow Jones industrials ($INX) closed up 36 points to 9,820 on Friday and are up more than 50% since bottoming on March 9. Stocks ended the week higher for the eighth time in the last 10 weeks, as investors have started to believe --rather than hope -- that an economic recovery is coming.

Crude oil fell 43 cents to $72.04 a barrel, but natural gas finished up 9.3% to $3.778 per million British thermal units, continuing a huge rally that began on Sept. 4. Gas is up 39% since then.

Energy shares were modestly lower. An exception was Chevron (CVX), up 0.9% to $72.64 after Credit Suisse analyst James Neale upgraded the stock to "outperform."

For the week, the Dow was up 2.4%, with the S&P 500 up 2.6% and the Nasdaq up 2.7%. For the year, the blue chips are up 12%. The S&P 500 is up 18.5%, and the Nasdaq is up 35.5%.

At the same time, most commodities drifted lower as the dollar found some strength. Gold fell $3.20 to $1,010.30 after hitting $1,024.70 an ounce on Wednesday.


The government will also auction $112 billion in Treasury securities over three days. Treasury yields were up today. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note was yielding 3.47% from 3.4% on Thursday.
Next week, investors will be watching a number of economic events.

Friday, September 11, 2009

Best week since July

The decent finish for the week came in the face of increasing analyst skepticism that the market can continue to move higher after jumping roughly 50% from the market lows in March.16:30 ET Dow -22.07 at 9605.41, Nasdaq -3.12 at 2080.90, S&P -1.41 at 1042.73:

Though stocks slipped for their first time in six sessions to finish the week in unimpressive fashion, stocks were still able to log their best weekly gain since July by advancing 2.6% in this holiday-shortened week of trade.

Gold was one of the strongest standouts this session. The yellow metal climbed all the way to $1013.70 per ounce before settling at an all-time closing high of $1006.20 per ounce, up 0.9% on the session.
Oil was less fortunate. It showed promise in early pit trade, but encountered resistance as it approached the $73 per barrel level and closed the session with a 3.8% loss at $69.22 per barrel.

Stocks initially looked as if they would extend recent gains as they made their way to new intraday highs for 2009, but the largely listless trade in the early going made for choppy trade, which then invoked moderate selling pressure.

Next week is relatively light on earnings. But there are a host of important economic reports due, including housing starts and building permits on Thursday.
Tuesday is the first anniversary of the collapse of investment house Lehman Bros., which set off the market crash of 2008.

But offsetting that bad news was a string of good news, including boosted earnings guidance from Texas Instruments (TXN) on Wednesday.
Friday's biggie was FedEx (FDX), the package shipper, which boosted its guidance for its fiscal first and second quarters. The formal report is due Tuesday. The stock jumped 6.4% to $77.32, third-best among stocks in the S&P 500 and in the Dow Jones Transportation Index ($DJT).
Rival UPS (UPS) rose 4.4% to $58.80, and the transport index was up 78 points, or 2%, to 3,975, with 16 of the 20 stocks in the index moving higher. The gain was the best among the 43 indexes that Market Dispatches tracks.
Only nine of the 30 Dow stocks were higher, led by Coca-Cola (KO), up 2.7% to $51.51. The stock was up 3.1% for the week.

Friday, September 4, 2009

FOREX ON EURUSD

The EURUSD has risen back up toward the 100 hour MA at the 1.4273 level. This is off the low for the day down at the 1.4191 level - just above the key 1.4183 price (midpoint of the move down from the July 2008 high to the October 2008 low). I would expect that in this up down type market, this level should find the sellers against the level.
Going forward I would expect the market action to slow down as NY traders exit early for the Labor Day Holiday Weekend. Be aware.



THE STOCK (FRIDAY 4TH SEPTEMBER, 2009
The Dow jumps 97 points as techs, GE and Caterpillar fuel the rally. Unemployment is the highest since 1983. Markets are closed Monday for Labor Day.

The Dow Jones industrials ($INDU) were up 97 points to 9,441. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) was up 13 points to 1,016, and the Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPX) was up 36 points to 2,019.

U.S. unemployment hit 9.7% in August, the government said Friday, the highest rate since 1983.

But investors cheered a smaller-than-expected decline in payroll employment and sent stocks higher. It's the first time in three days that the Nasdaq has been above 2,000.

The rally came on a day with very light volume as many investors had slipped away for the long Labor Day weekend. Markets will be closed Monday.

Technology stocks, especially Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT), were the market leaders, with strength also coming from big industrial stocks such as General Electric (GE) and Caterpillar (CAT). (Microsoft publishes MSN Money.)

GE was the Dow's biggest percentage gainer, up 3.1% to $13.87. Caterpillar, up 2.4%, contributed 8.5 points to the Dow's gain.

While there is concern that stocks are overbought, Friday's finish had to cheer investors. Stocks pushed higher into the close, a signal that investors are confident about the market and, it appears, that an economic recovery is coming.

Friday's rally was the second in a row for the major averages and was helped by a recovery in crude oil that pushed energy stocks higher.

Crude in New York had been as low as $67.12 but recovered to $68.02 a barrel, up 6 cents from Thursday, as the dollar declined against major currencies.

Stocks did finish lower on the week for only the second time in the last eight weeks. The Dow was off 1.1%, with the S&P 500 down 1.3% and the Nasdaq off 0.7%.
The unemployment rate was worse than expected; the betting had been that it would come in at 9.5%. The rising rate told many investors that the economic recovery that's emerging will almost certainly be slow, with workers the last to benefit.

"High unemployment rates are going to be with us for quite a while," Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, told The New York Times. "It’s going to be a long, long time before we see 6% or 7% unemployment."
The latest numbers brought total jobs lost since the recession began in December 2007 to 6.9 million, the biggest decline in any post-World War II economic slump.

Job losses peaked at 741,000 in January, the most since 1949.

The jobless rate had been projected to rise to 9.5%.

Friday's rally suggested growing confidence that an economic recovery is coming, though slowly.

Most analysts see gross domestic product, a statistical snapshot of the economy, showing small gains in the third and fourth quarters of this year, with jobs starting to grow again next year.

A few worry that the jobs situation is so weak that the economy could fall back once government stimulus programs end.

Friday, August 21, 2009

Home sales boost Dow 156

Stocks pushed to their highest levels of the year Friday, and the Dow Jones industrials ($INDU) topped 9,500 for the first time since November.The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) closed up 156 points, or 1.7%, to 9,506. The Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPX) added 32 points, or 1.6%, to 2,021, and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) gained 19 points, or 1.9%, to 1,026.

The rally was prompted in part by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who told an audience Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyo., that the economy looks to be leveling out, and, he added, "the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good."

Adding fuel to the rally was a better-than-expected report on existing-home prices and crude oil's highest close of the year.

The global economy is "beginning to emerge" from a recession, thanks to the "aggressive and complementary" steps taken by the Fed, other central banks and governments, Bernanke said in his speech at the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium in the Grand Tetons in Wyoming.

In addition, around 474 of the S&P 500 stocks were higher, along with 92 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX.X) stocks. The Nasdaq-100, which tracks the largest Nasdaq stocks, was up 1.5% to 1,638.

An additional boost to stocks came from options expiration.

The market ended the week higher for the fifth time in six weeks, a pleasant surprise, especially after the Dow fell 186 points on Monday. The Dow had a 2% gain for the week, with the S&P 500 up 2.2% and the Nasdaq up 1.8%.

The Dow is up 8.3% for the year. The S&P 500 is sporting a 13.6% gain, and the Nasdaq is up 28.2%.

Since March 9, the Dow is up 45%, with the S&P 500 up 52% and the Nasdaq up 59%.

But it's a weird market, too, as Barry Ritholtz noted on Yahoo's Tech Ticker: "We’ve never had a six-month period before where we’ve lost 2 million jobs and the market’s gained 50%. That’s simply unprecedented."

The downside to the day was that interest rates moved higher, as investors clamored to buy stocks. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.56% from 3.53% on Friday. Yields were flat on the week.

The dollar fell against major currencies. Commodity prices moved higher. Gold closed up 1.4% to $954.70. Copper jumped 5.1% to $2.89 a pound. It's up 105% this year.

Crude oil hit an intraday high of $74.48 a barrel Friday, its highest level so far in 2009, before dropping back to $73.89 a barrel, up 1.3% on the day.

The close was the highest in 2009. Crude was up 9.5% on the week and is up 65.7% on the year.

Natural gas was off 12 cents per million British thermal units to $2.824. That's down 80% from the 2008 peak of $14.529 per million BTU.

Nonetheless, energy shares were higher. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was up 1.9% to $69.92. Chevron (CVX) added 1.6% to $69.73. Schlumberger (SLB) jumped 5.1% to $56.56. Transocean (RIG) was up 2.9% to $77.53.

Obviously. There's something fishy going on. The stock market has been on a drunken high while many middle class people are drowning in debt.. In California, the known unemployment rate is 11.9% - which means, it's probably between 15% and 20%. There were record foreclosures here in July. Go suck a Bilderburg egg.


Friday, August 14, 2009

Stocks went on their slide

Market at the closed: Dow -76.79 at 9321.40, Nasdaq -23.83 at 1985.52, S&P -8.64 at 1004.09:

Major stock indexes closed lower today on worries that American consumers may be unable, even unwilling, to do the spending needed to sustain an economic recovery.

Confidence among consumers unexpectedly fell in August as concerns over jobs and wages intensified, according to the Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment, which fell to 63.2 from 66 in July.

"The consumer's not off to a good start in the third quarter," economist Jonathan Basile at Credit Suisse told Bloomberg News. "The concerns they've had because of jobs and income are still lingering and showing in their lack of spending."
Find on Bing: More on consumer confidence
Late buying helped stocks avoid their biggest sell-off in a month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU), which was down more than 166 points earlier in the session, closed at 9,321, down 77 points, or 0.8%. The blue chips lost 48 points on the week, or 0.5%.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) lost 9 points, or 0.9%, to end the session at 1,004. For the week, the S&P lost 6 points, or 0.6%.

The Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMP) closed down 24 points, or 1.2%, to end at 1,986. The tech-heavy index declined 15% on the week, or 0.7%.
The dollar rose against other major currencies as investors sought safety. Gold was down, as were prices of other metals. Benchmark crude oil settled at $67.51 a barrel, down $3.01, and natural gas prices fell to their low for the year on doubts about the resiliency of consumers, whose spending generates roughly 70% of U.S. economic activity.

U.S. stocks have risen nearly 50% from their March lows, a rally built on bullishness about an economic recovery. But this week's economic data -- on consumer sentiment, retail sales, jobless claims and home foreclosures -- have some doubting that valuations are justified by the fundamentals.
Boeing (BA) shares shed $1.75, or 3.8%, to end the session at $44.87 on news that technical problems with the skin of the fuselage of the 787 Dreamliner are more serious than has been acknowledged by the Chicago company.
Strong Market to watch
health care facilities;
home entertainment software;
distillers and vintners