Today silver and GOLD PRICES bounced back, moderately. the gold price gained $9.70 to a Comex close at $1,235.70. Silver found 15.7 cent to raise it to 1955.9, not much given the high came at 1974c. On a weekly chart gold flashed an MACD buy signal two weeks ago, but it's a near thing.
On the daily chart the GOLD PRICE broke out over the downtrend line from the October high on Monday, and today's action merely took it back to that line for a Kiss Good-Bye. Yeah, that sounds loony, but there 'tis. Other indicators pointing up, too, but we need some confirmation. First I'd like to see a gold price above that 20 DMA (1,245) next week early then closing above $1,257.50 (last high) and $1,295 (where it broke down).
The SILVER PRICE monthly chart is a cliffhanger, with silver dead on the uptrend line. On a weekly chart it's just beneath the downtrend line.
Today like gold, silver merely moved back to that downtrend line it had burst though on 6 December. Everything but the Rate of Change points up.
Next week will be interesting. We'll either see a big metals slide below recent lows, or gains confirming that bottom on 6 December.
The worm turned this week, but not without speaking out of both sides of his mouth. Stocks dropped for the second week in a row. Dollar index flatlined.
Dow managed a face saving little rise today after losing 286.1 the three days before. Added 15.93 or 0.1% to 15,755.36. S&P500 lost still, down 0.18 to $1,775.32, after making a new high on Monday.
The Dow "threw over," that is, climbed above and outside its upper trading channel line, back on 13 November, a month ago. Yesterday it fell cut through that line like a bag of mothballs pushed out of a C130 cargo jet. It's way below its 20 DMA (15,960) and hovering not far above its 50 DMA (15,655). Nothing in other indicators suggests it plans to turn up any time soon. I suspect this one's going to hurt
S&P 500 offers much the same picture as the Dow -- below its 20 DMA (1795) and nearing its 50 DMA (1762), but it hasn't quite fallen back into that trading channel. The line is about where the 50 DMA is. (It climbed out of that trading channel on 18 October.) So far there's no reason to say "This is The Big One" but stocks are lining up a painful correction.
Y'all may not put as much stock in the Dow in Gold and Dow in Dollars as I do, but only because you haven't followed them as long as I have and witnessed their reliability.
Now a natural born fool from North Carolina wants to know about the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver. I just divide the price of the Dow by the Gold or Silver price to get the indicator. It is very sensitive -- USUALLY -- to changes in the course of stocks against silver or gold. That's why I've been sweating bullets and spitting iron filings since these indicators crossed above their long term downtrend line. Waiting now for both to drop back under those lines. They sometimes turn before prices turn, or before you can be sure they've turned.
After rising barely through their 20 DMAs yesterday, they dropped back through them today. DiS closed lost 0.92% to close the day at 801.39 oz. DiG ended at 12.73 oz, lower by 0.98%. Both have established downtrends, the first sign that silver and gold are about to turn up against stocks. The move is just starting, so we need to see more confirmation, but all indicators point down.
US Dollar index rose 1.4 basis point today (0.04%) to 80.21. Best you can say for it is that it's no longer under support at 80, and it bumped against its 50 DMA (80.39) today. Otherwise it lacks confidence and decisiveness.
Euro, one of the dollar's three competitors for "Rottenest Fiat Currency on the Earthball," fell a tiny 0.7% to $1.3743. Might make another run for $1.3800.
Yen crashed 0.92% yesterday, and added back 0.15% today, ending at 96.62 cents per Y100. I wish those Japanese Nice Government Men would make up their minds whether they're going to push the yen off the cliff or not.
Y'all enjoy your weekend!
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Saturday
Gold Price
A hopeful sign I see for the silver and GOLD PRICES is the GOLD/SILVER RATIO chart that left a spike up behind yesterday from its 62.738 high, then fell today to end at 62.400, it appears to be a definite reversal, wanting only one more confirmation.
When I quote the gold price low to y'all you're going to think it dropped a lot today, but it's only the drop from yesterday's close at $1,257.90. Fell $14.40 to $1,243.50 on Comex, but most of that fall happened yesterday after the Comex close, and it's trading about where it was this time yesterday. 'Twas an extraordinarily quiet day bounded by a low at $1,235.80 and a high at $1,243.60.
I went back and checked the indicators at the June gold price low. The low occurred 27 June, but the MACD didn't turn up until 8 July. Didn't climb through the 20 DMA till 11 July. Rate of change didn't go positive until 12 July. Gold Silver Ratio peaked on 26 June, reversed on 27, and gapped down on 28.
Your point? Simply that watching gold on 27 June 2013 gave you no clue that it had turned up, OTHER THAN a key reversal beginning that day, confirmed the next day. Other indicators were all thumbs down.
The SILVER PRICE lost 12.2 cents today for a 1992.8c close. Range was narrow, from 2005c to 1970c. However, if you look at an End of Day chart and not Comex, the first half of a key reversal -- break into new low ground with a higher close for the day. Silver must confirm that with a higher close tomorrow.
The GOLD PRICE, on the other hand, offers no such comfort. End of day chart shows it making a new low for the day, but closing about where it ended yesterday. Speaks with forked tongue.
So far, no big waterfall other than yesterday. Longer silver and gold prices hang here without breaking down, less the likelihood they will break down. However, no positive sign of turnaround shows yet, other than the Gold Silver Ratio and silver's fist half Key Reversal. Both those need still to be confirmed.
We wait. We watch. We are patient, know that a Really Big Inflator is taking the tiller from Bernanke, raising giant waves of new money for silver and gold to surf on.
The Dow made a new high today and closed above 16,000, specifically it rose 109.17 (0.69%) to 16,009.99. Wait, I'll have more to say about that. S&P500 rose 14.48 or 0.81%, but made not a new high with its 1,795.85 close.
Because I have been suckered more times than Carter's has pills by markets that appear to recover, I offer these observations.
(1) Markets often top with Two highs about the same place.
(2) Trickier still, the second top is often higher than the first.
(3) As anvils do not spontaneously levitate into the stratosphere, so markets do not forever get more and more overbought. Markets making new highs day after day lie far closer to the end of their move than an extension.
(4) Dow actually made a lower intraday high today at 16,016.04, than it did on the last new all time high, namely, 16,030.38. Picture painted on the chart is lower highs and lower lows -- beginning a downtrend? S&P500 rose today, but to a lower high than the intraday high when the Dow made its last high and other indices refused to confirm.
(5) Despite all that, markets can keep becoming more overbought than you have money to put up shorting them, so stocks can go higher still.
Dow in Gold rose 0.71% today to 12.89 oz (G$266.46), a new high since June's 12.514 oz. Dow in silver rose 0.11% to 802.3 oz, still below the June 816.77 high.
Ten year note yield fell today to 2.784%, probably on news that Big Janet is coming and will continue Big Ben's Zero Interest Rate Policy. However, interest rates broke out to the upside in June, corrected September - October, and now are rising again,. The bond market smells a rat, and that rat might be rising interest rates that overcome the Fed's ZIRP (Egad! Where DO they get these acronyms?)
US Dollar Index rose a little today, 0.4% to 81.08, three basis points, but is trading below 81 now. Trying to break out skyward. Maybe this turkey can fly.
Yen gave up today with a gap down, losing 1.14% to end on its lows at 98.85 and gasping for breath. Looks to be shooting for 96.4 cents per 100 yen or less.
The euro, on the other hand, rose 0,33% to $1.3483. I keep asking myself why it might rise, but on the chart I can find no reason.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
When I quote the gold price low to y'all you're going to think it dropped a lot today, but it's only the drop from yesterday's close at $1,257.90. Fell $14.40 to $1,243.50 on Comex, but most of that fall happened yesterday after the Comex close, and it's trading about where it was this time yesterday. 'Twas an extraordinarily quiet day bounded by a low at $1,235.80 and a high at $1,243.60.
I went back and checked the indicators at the June gold price low. The low occurred 27 June, but the MACD didn't turn up until 8 July. Didn't climb through the 20 DMA till 11 July. Rate of change didn't go positive until 12 July. Gold Silver Ratio peaked on 26 June, reversed on 27, and gapped down on 28.
Your point? Simply that watching gold on 27 June 2013 gave you no clue that it had turned up, OTHER THAN a key reversal beginning that day, confirmed the next day. Other indicators were all thumbs down.
The SILVER PRICE lost 12.2 cents today for a 1992.8c close. Range was narrow, from 2005c to 1970c. However, if you look at an End of Day chart and not Comex, the first half of a key reversal -- break into new low ground with a higher close for the day. Silver must confirm that with a higher close tomorrow.
The GOLD PRICE, on the other hand, offers no such comfort. End of day chart shows it making a new low for the day, but closing about where it ended yesterday. Speaks with forked tongue.
So far, no big waterfall other than yesterday. Longer silver and gold prices hang here without breaking down, less the likelihood they will break down. However, no positive sign of turnaround shows yet, other than the Gold Silver Ratio and silver's fist half Key Reversal. Both those need still to be confirmed.
We wait. We watch. We are patient, know that a Really Big Inflator is taking the tiller from Bernanke, raising giant waves of new money for silver and gold to surf on.
The Dow made a new high today and closed above 16,000, specifically it rose 109.17 (0.69%) to 16,009.99. Wait, I'll have more to say about that. S&P500 rose 14.48 or 0.81%, but made not a new high with its 1,795.85 close.
Because I have been suckered more times than Carter's has pills by markets that appear to recover, I offer these observations.
(1) Markets often top with Two highs about the same place.
(2) Trickier still, the second top is often higher than the first.
(3) As anvils do not spontaneously levitate into the stratosphere, so markets do not forever get more and more overbought. Markets making new highs day after day lie far closer to the end of their move than an extension.
(4) Dow actually made a lower intraday high today at 16,016.04, than it did on the last new all time high, namely, 16,030.38. Picture painted on the chart is lower highs and lower lows -- beginning a downtrend? S&P500 rose today, but to a lower high than the intraday high when the Dow made its last high and other indices refused to confirm.
(5) Despite all that, markets can keep becoming more overbought than you have money to put up shorting them, so stocks can go higher still.
Dow in Gold rose 0.71% today to 12.89 oz (G$266.46), a new high since June's 12.514 oz. Dow in silver rose 0.11% to 802.3 oz, still below the June 816.77 high.
Ten year note yield fell today to 2.784%, probably on news that Big Janet is coming and will continue Big Ben's Zero Interest Rate Policy. However, interest rates broke out to the upside in June, corrected September - October, and now are rising again,. The bond market smells a rat, and that rat might be rising interest rates that overcome the Fed's ZIRP (Egad! Where DO they get these acronyms?)
US Dollar Index rose a little today, 0.4% to 81.08, three basis points, but is trading below 81 now. Trying to break out skyward. Maybe this turkey can fly.
Yen gave up today with a gap down, losing 1.14% to end on its lows at 98.85 and gasping for breath. Looks to be shooting for 96.4 cents per 100 yen or less.
The euro, on the other hand, rose 0,33% to $1.3483. I keep asking myself why it might rise, but on the chart I can find no reason.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
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